Broker DaveFix & flip deal analyzer
A fix & flip loan qualifies the deal, not your paycheck. Put in the ARV, the price and the rehab, and you'll see the whole project the way a lender does — the 70% rule, the loan stack, every cost, and the profit that survives them.
The deal
What the FINISHED house sells for — from real comps sold in the last 3–6 months, not the seller's guess.
70% rule max offer: $170,000 (70% × ARV − rehab).
Renovation + listing + closing. Every extra month has a price — see the scoreboard.
The pros budget 10–20% on top — every wall hides a surprise. Unused cushion becomes profit.
The loan
Each point is 1% of the loan, paid at closing. Typical: 1.5–3.
You bring the rest as the down payment: $25,500.
Usually 100% — released in draws AFTER inspections, so you still float each stage.
Most fix & flip lenders cap the total loan at 70–75% of ARV.
The friction
Taxes, insurance, utilities while you own it.
Agent commission + seller-side closing — the cost everybody forgets.
Double-digit margin on the ARV — room for a surprise behind the drywall and still a payday. (17.5% of ARV, ~6 months.)
The 70% rule check
- Max offer (70% × ARV − rehab)
- $170,000
- Your purchase price
- $170,000
- Under the rule by
- $0
You make your money on the buy, not the fix-up. If the seller won't meet the math — walk. There's always the next wreck.
The loan
- Purchase loan (85%)
- $144,500
- Your down payment
- $25,500
- Rehab financed (100%)
- $40,000
- Total loan
- $184,500
- Loan-to-ARV (cap 70%)
- 61.5%
Fits under the lender's ceiling. Rehab money releases in draws after inspections — you front each stage and get paid back, which is why reserves matter.
Every cost (count like a pessimist)
- Points (2)
- $3,690
- Interest ($1,614/mo × 6)
- $9,686
- Closing (buy)
- $2,500
- Holding × 6 mo
- $3,600
- Selling (6%)
- $18,000
- All-in (with purchase + rehab)
- $247,476
The scoreboard
- Sells at ARV
- $300,000
- All-in cost
- $247,476
- Profit
- $52,524
- Your cash in the deal
- $44,976
- Cash-on-cash (~6 mo)
- 116.8%
- Same deal all-cash needs
- $216,100
- Every EXTRA month costs
- $2,214
- Profit if ARV misses by 10%
- $24,324
The ARV-miss line is the deal's stress test: one optimistic comp and the profit above takes the hit — be a pessimist with the comps.
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The three rules the analyzer is built on
Make money on the buy
The 70% rule — offer at most 70% of the ARV minus the rehab. The 30% band isn't profit: it has to absorb the points, the interest, the holding, the commission, and then pay you. Overpay on day one and no countertop on earth saves the deal.
Count like a pessimist
First flips go broke on the costs nobody counts: points, interest-only carry, taxes and insurance while you hold it, and the selling costs on the way out. The analyzer charges interest on the full loan from day one — on purpose. Beat the deal up on paper and see if it still floats.
Pick two exits
Exit one: sell at the ARV. Exit two: rent it and refinance into a 30-year DSCR loan that qualifies on the rent. The Plan B tab checks whether the refi actually reaches your flip-loan payoff — a deal where both exits work is very hard to lose.
A few honest caveats
- Your ARV is only as good as your comps — houses that actually sold in the last 3–6 months, same neighborhood, same size, already renovated. Watch the "ARV misses by 10%" line: that's the deal's stress test.
- Real lenders charge interest on the drawn balance, so your actual carry usually lands a little under this estimate — the analyzer runs pessimistic on purpose.
- Rehab money releases in draws after inspections. You front each stage and get reimbursed — which is why lenders check reserves even when they fund 100% of the rehab.
- Leverage, rate and points move with your experience, the deal, and your state. First flip? You can still get funded — expect a bit more down until you have a completed project or two.
This analyzer is educational and is not a loan offer, a rate quote, or a commitment to lend. Every figure is an estimate. David Lurvey, NMLS 410420.